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Economics

Africa Africa in numbers Date: 2010/09/02	August 2010 <p align='justify'>Report on key macro-economic indicators for select African economies.<br><br> 265.0 KB Click to view report Samantha Singh

South Africa Motor alert Date: 2010/09/02	Sales cycle impresses <p align='justify'>The National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA) reported that total vehicle sales increased by 12.2% m/m in August with annual growth increasing to 36.9% during the month. The new passenger car sales cycle delivered another surprise in August with stellar growth corroborating increased household demand as the economic activity picks up pace. And economic indicators at this stage are reflecting acceleration in the sales cycle through to year end. However, the tail-end of the year typically reflects a softened sales growth cycle. Still, we are optimistic that in a low interest rate and inflation environment, the market could see stellar growth of around 25% for the year. We do not, however, discount that there are a number of headwinds which could pressure vehicle sales lower.<br><br> 281.0 KB Click to view report Shireen Darmalingam

South Africa Residential property gauge Date: 2010/09/01	Market showing solid improvement <p align='justify'>The property market recovered further in August when a growth rate in the median property price of 8.3% y/y was reported, following on a growth rate of 7.3% in July. This is a very solid improvement on house price growth rates reported in the early part of the year. Despite several headwinds to growth, such as weak employment market conditions, weaker economic growth and rising administered prices, confidence in the property market is returning. This is likely to result in the second half of the year registering higher growth in property prices (with the average nominal growth envisaged at around 6% for the year), but the growth momentum is anticipated to slow down in sympathy with the slightly weaker economy.<br><br> 291.0 KB Click to view report Johan Botha

Africa Macroeconomic review Date: 2010/08/31	August 2010 <p align='justify'>This macroeconomic review covers the following countries: Angola, Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Nigeria, Tanzania, Uganda and Zambia.</p> <p align='justify'>&#160;Selected highlights:</p> <ul><li><strong>Angola</strong>: The credit growth data, by economic sector, shows strong growth in the construction, commerce and real estate sectors, and decline in the mining and oil and gas sector, which mirrors the authorities&#8217; diversification strategy.</li><li><strong>Botswana</strong>: The bi-annual <em>Business Expectations Survey </em>showed that respondents, particularly exporters, were generally optimist about prevailing business conditions and the outlook for the coming 12 months. </li><li><strong>Kenya</strong>: Private consumption will be a major driver of economic growth in 2010 as food and cash crop production supports households.</li><li><strong>Mozambique</strong>: Economic growth moderated to 8.8% y/y in the second quarter of 2010, compared to 9.5% y/y, in the first quarter, but was a significant improvement from 6.9% y/y a year earlier. </li></ul><br><br> 711.0 KB Click to view report Authors: Yvette Babb , Jan Duvenage , Yvonne Mhango

Africa Africa telegraph Date: 2010/08/31	Selected news events for 23rd – 27th August 2010 <p align='justify'>This document is a compilation of media articles on economic and political developments in Africa for the week&#160;23<sup>rd</sup> &#160;August &#8211; 27<sup>th</sup> August 2010. &#160; <br><br> 468.0 KB Click to view report Samantha Singh

South Africa Money supply Date: 2010/08/31	PSCE advances ahead of expectations <p align='justify'>According to the latest figures from the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), growth in money supply came in above expectations, rising by 3.7% y/y in July from 2.4% y/y in June. Growth in credit extension increased above our expectations, rising to 2% y/y in July from an increase of 0.9% y/y in June, owing to an increased uptake of new mortgage loans. While there are tentative signs that growth in credit extension is improving, the loss in domestic growth momentum in the second half of the year is a harbinger of weak growth in credit extension. Nonetheless, consumers are anxiously awaiting further monetary policy reprieve, which may materialise as early as next week. Monetary policy accommodation of 50 basis points is expected, which could boost credit spending in the remaining months of the year. However, consumers are fully aware that the stresses in the labour market may not allow for robust spending on credit.<br><br> 275.0 KB Click to view report Shireen Darmalingam

South Africa Foreign trade Date: 2010/08/31	Trade balance surprises in July <p align='justify'>The South African Revenue Services (SARS) reported a second consecutive trade surplus of R2bn in July from a surplus of R5.628bn in June. Exports increased to R56.010bn in July from R55.561bn in June. Imports increased to R53.992bn in July from R49.933bn in June and translate into an 8.1% m/m increase. Today&#8217;s data surprised once again, nonetheless, we continue to expect a stream of trade deficits this year, albeit milder in nature. While there is scope for exports to thrive as global economic activity picks up pace, it is questionable whether we will see strong enough increases in exports to steer the trade balance away from deficit territory. The trade balance is likely to receive upside pressure by an improvement in internal demand as the domestic recovery gathers traction.<br><br> 253.0 KB Click to view report Shireen Darmalingam

South Africa Weekly preview Date: 2010/08/27	Demand-side data critical for final rate view <p align='justify'><strong>South Africa:</strong></p> <ul><li>Private sector credit seen grinding higher</li><li>Trade deficit on the cards for July</li><li>Passenger car sales not seen blowing off steam yet&#160;</li></ul> <p align='justify'><strong>Global economy:</strong></p> <ul><li>China PMI manufacturing expected to have increased</li><li>Euro-zone economic growth steady</li><li>US labour market carries concerns</li></ul><br><br> 437.0 KB Click to view report Authors: Shireen Darmalingam , Danelee van Dyk

South Africa Producer price index (PPI) Date: 2010/08/26	PPI resumes disinflation trend <p align='justify'>Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) reported that prices at the factory gate increased by 7.7% y/y in July from 9.4% y/y in June and in line with our expectations. The substantial easing in July was driven largely by a slowdown in electricity costs following an increase in June on the back of winter tariff increases. Today&#8217;s data is likely to have muted feed through implications for consumer inflation in the coming months. This is likely to further reinforce hopes that monetary policy accommodation may be on the cards at the MPC meeting next month.<br><br> 256.0 KB Click to view report Shireen Darmalingam

South Africa Consumer price index (CPI) Date: 2010/08/25	Lower consumer prices leave rate cut hopes alive <p align='justify'>According to Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), consumer inflation eased to 3.7% y/y in July from 4.2% y/y in June, opening the door for monetary policy easing at the next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in September, especially in light of yesterday&#8217;s lower-than-expected GDP print. While the South African Reserve Bank&#8217;s growth stance has largely factored in slower growth in Q2, it is plausible that further downside pressure could cause growth to dip below the bank&#8217;s 3.2% forecast. The lower-than-expected growth in consumer inflation in July is likely to lower the overall average inflation for 2010 to 4.4%, potentially warranting rate accommodation.<br><br> 266.0 KB Click to view report Shireen Darmalingam

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Latest research

Standard Bank's Research Portal provides you with our latest market and economic research

Economics

August 2010

Sales cycle impresses

Market showing solid improvement

August 2010

Selected news events for 23rd – 27th August 2010

PSCE advances ahead of expectations

Trade balance surprises in July

Demand-side data critical for final rate view

PPI resumes disinflation trend

Lower consumer prices leave rate cut hopes alive

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