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Economics

Africa Africa telegraph Date: 2010/02/08	Selected news events for 1st February – 5th February 2010 <p align='justify'>This document is a compilation of media articles on economic and political developments in Africa for the week&#160; 1<sup>st</sup> February &#8211; 5<sup>th</sup> February 2010.<br><br> 435.0 KB Click to view report Samantha Singh

South Africa Weekly preview Date: 2010/02/05	Economies in tug of war with recession <p align='justify'><strong>South Africa<a href="#_ftn1"><strong>[1]</strong></a>:</strong></p> <ul><li>Manufacturing output could see strong gains in December</li></ul> <p align='justify'><strong>Global:</strong></p> <ul><li>Chinese inflation advances</li><li>Euro-zone GDP still a concern</li><li>US retail sales&#8217; year ahead is more promising</li></ul> <p align='justify'>&#160;</p> <hr></hr> <p align='justify'><a href="#_ftnref1"><em><strong>[1]</strong></em></a><em><sup> </sup></em><em>Feature article topics will in the future form part of thematic research grouped under South Africa: Insights</em><br><br> 401.0 KB Click to view report Authors: Shireen Darmalingam , Danelee van Dyk

South Africa Reserve Alerts Date: 2010/02/05	Foreign exchange reserves fall further in January <p align='justify'>Foreign exchange reserves declined by USD124m to USD32.351bn at the end of January from USD32.475bn at the end of December. Total gross reserves fell to USD39.489bn at the end of January from USD39.706bn at the end December. The international liquidity position (net reserves) decreased by USD330m to USD33.630bn at the end of January from USD38.960bn at the end of December.&#160;</p> <p align='justify'>Gross reserves are expected to decline moderately in the short term as it is at the mercy of currency fluctuations and high costs associated with sterilisation. Should an opportunity present itself for the Bank to up its accumulation without unsettling the market, the Bank is likely to act accordingly, as it is becoming increasingly important to focus on expected economic shifts, which may again expose a relatively low level of reserves in a risk-heightened global economy.<br><br> 261.0 KB Click to view report Shireen Darmalingam

International BRIC and Africa Date: 2010/02/02	Brazil weds itself to Africa’s latent agricultural potential <p align="justify">Africa&#8217;s persistent food and energy security deficit remains a significant retardant to growth. Indeed, Africa is the only place in the world where overall food security and livelihoods are deteriorating. Without sweeping reforms enhancing the quality and structure of Africa&#8217;s agricultural sector, the continent will not be able to effectively counter the challenges of a rising population, set to reach two billion by 2050, and the adverse conditions brought about by climate change in the 21<sup>st</sup> century.&#160;</p> <p align="justify">Having engaged in its own &#8216;green revolution&#8217; since the 1970s, Brazil is actively positioning itself to partner Africa in the vital process of boosting energy and food security in the coming decades. Also central to Brazil&#8217;s own agricultural and economic renewal has been the development of a strong biofuels industry, which it hopes to expand into fertile African markets. The commercial drivers for Brazil&#8217;s agricultural assistance of African states are compelling. Africa&#8217;s vast untapped potential offers significant opportunities for Brazil&#8217;s food and ethanol exporters and technical experts in the agricultural and biofuels industries. While Brazil has significant and growing interests in African oil, centred on Nigeria and Angola, biofuels and agriculture will undeniably play a more crucial role in Brazil-Africa relations in the 21st...<br><br> 561.0 KB Click to view report Authors: Simon Freemantle , Jeremy Stevens

South Africa Motor alert Date: 2010/02/02	A sweet and sour outlook <p align='justify'>Passenger car sales kicked the year off with a bang! According to the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa (NAAMSA), new passenger car sales surged by 47.9% m/m in January to a stellar 15.3% y/y from -18.2% y/y in December. This marked the largest increase in sales in any January sales month on record. When these sales are viewed in conjunction with sales reported by Associated Motor Holdings (AMH) and Amalgamated Automobile Distributors (AAD), total passenger car sales rose by an astounding 31% y/y in January from -11% y/y in December. If January and December sales are averaged and compared with the corresponding period last year, sales rose by 3.1% relative to November last year and by -1.1% y/y from -3.9% y/y in November. This pattern is more consistent with current demand fundamentals and the sluggish appetite for credit. Commercial vehicle sales declined by 4.9% m/m in January, but rose by 5% y/y, owing to a stronger sales performance in light commercial vehicles and buses.&#160;</p> <p align='justify'>We anticipate that new vehicle affordability will improve this year, which should underpin firm sales growth in the region of 8% to 10%. Debt restructuring will be crucial for a stronger revival in the sector, which will only be underpinned by firmer income growth. At this stage we don&#8217;t see a vast improvement in income growth, given the relatively muted prospects for job creation.<br><br> 289.0 KB Click to view report Danelee van Dyk

South Africa Residential property gauge Date: 2010/02/02	House price deflation - steady improvement off the bottom <p align="justify">In spite of the economy emerging from recession in Q3 2009, important drivers of household spending in the economy, such as the level of household income, debt and unemployment, do not point to a quick turnaround in the housing market. Four consecutive months of lower declines in the median house price suggest that house price growth could turn positive by the second quarter of 2010.<br><br> 295.0 KB Click to view report Johan Botha

Africa Africa telegraph Date: 2010/02/01	Selected news events for 25th January – 29th January 2010 <p align='justify'>This document is a compilation of media articles on economic and political developments in Africa for the week&#160; 25th January - 29th January 2010.<br><br> 439.0 KB Click to view report Samantha Singh

South Africa Weekly preview Date: 2010/01/29	Focus to fall on strength of demand <p align='justify'><strong>South Africa:</strong></p> <ul><li>New vehicle sales to rebound in January</li><li>Gross gold and foreign exchange reserves to have increased marginally in January</li></ul> <p align='justify'><strong>Global:</strong></p> <ul><li>UK Bank of England Monetary Policy Committee to reflect on quantitative easing</li><li>EU Monetary Policy Committee meeting sitting pat</li><li>US unemployment still in distress</li></ul><br><br> 408.0 KB Click to view report Authors: Shireen Darmalingam , Danelee van Dyk

South Africa Money supply Date: 2010/01/29	PSCE contraction moderates <p align='justify'>According to the South African Reserve Bank (SARB), growth in M3 picked up pace in December, increasing to 1.6% y/y in December from 0.6% y/y in November 2009. Private sector credit extension (PSCE) improved from the -1.6% y/y contraction in November to -0.76% y/y in December and marks the third consecutive month of tightening in credit extension.&#160;</p> <p align='justify'>The decelerating trend in PSCE growth is starting to moderate as the slight improvement in the housing market supports the growth in mortgage advances. Credit demand has for the past year been limited by weak business and consumer confidence. Going forward, we could see this position improve as consumers eventually become more financially secure. In the meantime, however, there is still a bias towards cash-based spending. As far as corporates are concerned, the recovery from the recession is likely to embark on a slower path than households. Thus, PSCE in the coming months is expected to remain pressured.<br><br> 245.0 KB Click to view report Shireen Darmalingam

South Africa Foreign trade Date: 2010/01/29	Surprise December trade surplus <p align='justify'>The trade account recorded a surprise surplus of R3.668bn in December following a deficit of R2.474bn in November.&#160; The surplus was driven by a substantial decline in imports during the month. However, expectations of a revival in imports going forward are still very much alive and are thus keeping the bias of trade deficits in 2010 buoyant. Expect a turnaround in the trade account as soon as January 2010, when seasonal restocking occurs.<br><br> 292.0 KB Click to view report Shireen Darmalingam

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Latest research

Standard Bank's Research Portal provides you with our latest market and economic research

Economics

Selected news events for 1st February – 5th February 2010

Economies in tug of war with recession

Foreign exchange reserves fall further in January

Brazil weds itself to Africa’s latent agricultural potential

A sweet and sour outlook

House price deflation - steady improvement off the bottom

Selected news events for 25th January – 29th January 2010

Focus to fall on strength of demand

PSCE contraction moderates

Surprise December trade surplus

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