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Economics

Africa Africa forecasts Date: 2010/03/18	March 2010 <p align='justify'>Inflation, foreign exchange and interest rate forecasts in select African economies.<br><br> 280.0 KB Click to view report Authors: Yvette Babb , Jan Duvenage , Anita Last , Yvonne Mhango

International BRIC and Africa Date: 2010/03/17	CII – Exim Bank Conclave on India Africa Project Partnership ... <p align="justify">With the theme of &#8220;Developing Synergies: Creating a Vision&#8221;, the sixth Confederation of Indian Industry (CII) &#8211; Exim Bank of India Conclave on India Africa Project Partnerships took place in New Delhi between 13 and 15 March, 2010. Attended by almost 1000 political and business representatives, almost half of which were African, the conclave once again marked itself as a vital cog in the ever expanding cycle of trade and investment between India and Africa.</p> <p align="justify">Standard Bank participated in the conclave, and found inspiration in the compelling thrust of Indo-African commercial ties, seeing further evidence of the structurally sound private sector platform which underpins the majority of bilateral and multilateral commercial interactions. To be sure, while the headlines were snatched by the attendance at the conclave of some of India&#8217;s most influential political figures, the depth and influence of Indo-African ties lies resoundingly in the private sphere.</p> <p align="justify">This paper identifies the highlights of the conclave, suggesting that the nature of the event in many ways defines the opportunities and challenges inherent in Indo-African commercial and diplomatic allegiances.<br><br> 459.0 KB Click to view report Authors: Simon Freemantle , Jeremy Stevens

South Africa Retail trade alert Date: 2010/03/17	Progress towards zero as expected <p align='justify'>The latest set of retail sales data indicates that the sector has turned the corner at the end of 2009 and that growth, while still negative, is approaching zero. According to Statistics South Africa (Stats SA), retail sales in real terms contracted (as expected) by 1.7% y/y in January. Retail sales also fell by 4.1% in the quarter ending in January relative to the previous three months. The categories &#8220;other retailers&#8221;, &#8220;general dealers&#8221; and &#8220;retailers in hardware paint and glass&#8221; were the largest contributors to the weak sales environment in the period of November &#8211; January. In nominal terms, retail sales growth improved to 4.7% y/y in January from 3.2% y/y in December and 2.9% y/y in the three months to January compared to the previous three months.<br><br> 256.0 KB Click to view report Johan Botha

Botswana Annual Economic Outlook Date: 2010/03/16	The diamond dilemma <p align='justify'>The diamond industry suffered its greatest reversal of fortune in 2008 and 2009 since Botswana became independent in 1966. The severity of the credit crunch, which turned into the &#8220;Great Recession&#8221;, can be seen in Botswana&#8217;s quarterly real GDP growth figures. In the first quarter of 2009, real GDP dropped by 18.8% compared to the same quarter in 2008; whereas the mining and quarrying industry (mostly diamond mining) fell by an astonishing 68.6% over the same period. In the second quarter the economy grew by 1.3%, but the mining sector contracted by 18.7%. In the third quarter the mining sector again contracted, by 28.1%, causing the overall economy to contract by 3.1%.</p> <p align='justify'>The Botswana government will need to focus on economic as well as social issues: to diversify the economy, to reduce poverty and unemployment, and narrow the large income disparities. The recent election has given the ruling party a strong mandate to implement growth-orientated policies, even if these prove to be unpopular in the short term, if they deliver diversification and economic growth in the medium and long term. The large fiscal deficit is cause for concern, but the government is committed, under NDP10, to deliver a balanced budget by 2012/13. There is no doubt that it is a difficult objective to achieve, and the country may yet see increased hardship if the government cannot continue to fund its social mandate to alleviate poverty and combat...<br><br> 577.0 KB Click to view report Jan Duvenage

Africa Africa telegraph Date: 2010/03/15	Selected news events for 8th March – 12th March 2010 <p align='justify'>This document is a compilation of media articles on economic and political developments in Africa for the week&#160;8<sup>th</sup> &#160;March &#8211; 12<sup>th</sup> &#160;March 2010.<br><br> 452.0 KB Click to view report Samantha Singh

Kenya Annual Economic Outlook Date: 2010/03/15	Good things come to those who wait <p align='justify'>Kenya&#8217;s emergence from the slump of 2008 that was brought about by a domestic political shock, a local drought and the unravelling of the global financial crisis that manifested as a global economic recession was not convincing in 2009, the prospects for 2010 are looking brighter. Prospects are assisted by improved global demand for Kenya&#8217;s (agricultural) export products as well as positive forecasts for weather conditions in 2010. The long rains season that runs to September are expected to match normal levels of precipitation. Increased rains will allow for improvements in food security as well as amplified production of hydropower. In the first half of 2010, erratic short rains will, however, call for the need for continued production of emergency thermal power that will in return further raise the cost of doing business in light of higher oil prices in 2010 compared to the previous year.&#160;</p> <p align='justify'>Growth in 2010 is expected to increase to 3.9% on the back of improved agricultural production (and related manufacturing output), higher tourism arrivals and increased exports to advanced economies as well as to the region. The government stimulus package will further elevate growth and support household purchasing power in the beginning of 2010 as the execution of the public works programme manifests. The Economic Stimulus or Resilience Package, amounting to KSh22 billion for the financing of infrastructure development, was...<br><br> 561.0 KB Click to view report Yvette Babb

South Africa Insight Date: 2010/03/15	Balancing the cost of electricity with the benefit of additional power supply <p align='justify'>Given the general discourse over the expected implications of rising electricity tariffs over the next few years, this note examines costs to the economy as a result of higher tariffs, but also balances this view with the potential economic and socio-economic impacts that further investment in electricity-generating capacity could bring. There is no doubt that the suggested tariff increases will impact negatively on households, business and the economy as a whole. While inflation may actually be lower than initially envisaged, there is little recourse for consumers&#8217; real purchasing power, which will be negatively affected in absolute terms. However, what has received less attention in the media is that further investment by the country in infrastructure will have certain macroeconomic and socio-economic effects that will last over the lifespan of such investments. A number of standard indicators are calculated to provide an indication of the likely effect of electricity investment projects that have received the green light or are in the processes of being approved. This Insight will first review the impact of the tariff increases on inflation, output and employment, and conclude with empirical estimates reflecting the overarching benefits of Eskom&#8217;s infrastructure continuity. The short-term trade-off between economic growth and higher electricity tariffs is inconsequential when viewed against the long-term benefits of new electricity supply...<br><br> 473.0 KB Click to view report Authors: Johan Botha , Danelee van Dyk

South Africa Weekly preview Date: 2010/03/12	Some encouraging signs <p align='justify'><strong>South Africa:</strong></p> <ul><li>Retail sales: little traction expected</li></ul> <p align='justify'><strong>Global:</strong></p> <ul><li>UK &#8211; money supply growth to remain at low levels</li><li>US &#8211; Empire State manufacturing index reflecting increase in business conditions</li><li>Japan &#8211; coincident and leading economic indicators steadily increasing</li></ul><br><br> 411.0 KB Click to view report Authors: Johan Botha , Shireen Darmalingam

Africa Africa in numbers Date: 2010/03/11	February 2010 <p align='justify'>Report on key macro-economic indicators for select African economies.<br><br> 266.0 KB Click to view report Samantha Singh

South Africa Manufacturing unpacked Date: 2010/03/11	Does the recovery have legs? <p align='justify'>Manufacturing output improved to 3.7% y/y in January from 3.2% y/y in December. While there are considerable headwinds to the sector in respect of the sustainability of revival in global demand, rand strength and volatility as well as the strength of domestic growth drivers, we remain cautiously optimistic in the short term. Base effects in the first half of last year could underpin growth of up to 10% in manufacturing production in 2010 H1. However, the real concern relates to the receding impetus from inventory rebuilding and global stimulus packages. We maintain that household demand is likely to be on a firmer footing in the second half of the year, which should give the local manufacturing sector&#8217;s recovery additional legs. In this scenario, growth is likely to average between 3.5% and 6.5% this year, overtaking the construction sector as the largest sectoral driver of economic activity.<br><br> 260.0 KB Click to view report Danelee van Dyk

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Latest research

Standard Bank's Research Portal provides you with our latest market and economic research

Economics

March 2010

CII – Exim Bank Conclave on India Africa Project Partnership ...

Progress towards zero as expected

The diamond dilemma

Selected news events for 8th March – 12th March 2010

Good things come to those who wait

Balancing the cost of electricity with the benefit of additional power supply

Some encouraging signs

February 2010

Does the recovery have legs?

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